China must double ship output by 2028

Chinese shipbuilding facilities command 64% of the worldwide orderbook, yet must nearly double their yearly production by 2028 to fulfill commitments, Bimco’s latest assessment reveals.

The total global orderbook expanded by 13% year-over-year to 203.2 million compensated gross tonnes (cgt) as of 1 September 2026, with Chinese yards expanding their dominance in new vessel contracts. This marks a rise from 180 million cgt recorded the previous year.

While current levels remain just below the peak of 210.4 million cgt observed in May, they exceed the prior record of 195.4 million cgt set in 2008.

Within the last twelve months, Chinese shipyards captured 74% of newly contracted cgt, raising their global orderbook share to 64%. South Korea holds the second-largest portion at 19%, while Japan accounts for 6%.

China’s lead extends across all six primary vessel categories, including 81% of the containership orderbook and at least 72% of orders for tankers, gas carriers, dry bulk carriers, ro-ro ships, and other dry cargo types.

Bimco’s chief shipping analyst, Niels Rasmussen, noted that container ships now constitute 30% of the total cgt on order and represent 68% of the orderbook’s growth over the past year.

With orders secured, Chinese yards must now ramp up production to handle a significant increase in scheduled deliveries over the coming years.

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The three leading shipbuilding nations reached a production peak of 40.1 million cgt in 2025, but their combined deliveries are projected to climb to 55.9 million cgt in 2026 and 60.0 million cgt by 2028. Bimco emphasizes that Chinese yards, in particular, will need to boost capacity to meet these obligations.

A separate report from Clarksons this month suggests global shipyard output could hit unprecedented levels of 64 million cgt in 2027 and 69 million cgt in 2028.

Though China has solidified its position as the world’s top shipbuilding nation, its yards must achieve record annual output levels to ensure timely delivery of vessels. Chinese shipyards are scheduled to complete 44.0 million cgt in 2028—nearly double the 22.7 million cgt delivered in 2025.

The surge in orders before the 2008 financial crisis contributed to global deliveries peaking at approximately 54.4 million cgt in 2010 and 2011, as shipyards worked through accumulated backlogs. Production later declined to a low of around 31.2 million cgt in 2020 before gradually recovering.

The combination of reduced ordering and falling deliveries, alongside the global economic downturn, reduced China’s active shipyards from 379 in 2010 to just 117 by 2019. Worldwide, the number of operational yards decreased by 60% between 2009 and 2017.

Based on their highest annual output over the past five years, Chinese shipyards currently maintain an average order coverage of 4.2 years, compared to 1.9 years for South Korea and 1.7 years for Japan. If measured against the highest scheduled deliveries between 2021 and 2030, China’s coverage drops to 2.1 years, while both South Korea and Japan fall to 1.6 years.